WHEN COMPLEXITY SCIENCE MEETS CONVERGENCE RESEARCH PART 4
VUCA Psychology: Does Uncertainty Necessarily Invite Anxiety?
Capturing human stories on the journey
This is a timely topic given the big COVID context: working with uncertainty is one of the biggest challenges this pandemic has presented to humanity as a whole, and to each individual according to their unique contexts.
It just so happens that uncertainty is one of the central topics in complexity science. As Ilya Prigogine, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1977 for his contributions to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, illustrated in his book The End of Certainty:
We are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present, and the symmetry between past and future is broken. We need not only laws, but also events that bring an element of radical novelty to the description of nature.
We had a beautiful time together. Surprisingly, instead of anxiety, we walked away with deep appreciation for and high confidence working with uncertainty.
Our Process
Certainties for this project
Instead of tackling uncertainty head on, we started our conversation with certainty. We asked the question: From your unique perspective, what are the three things you are most certain about the circular economy project we are working on right now?
The answers we came up with included: the relevance of complexity leadership to convergence research; the importance of circular economy as a research topic; the commitment of the team to the topic; the advantage afforded by diverse perspectives; the inherent turbulence in CE research as mirrored in our team; the progress we have already made; the transformative change this project will make; the promising future of blockchain.
We started with the spotlight on certainty because focusing on certainty is a very practical way to work with uncertainty. Everything in creation comes in pairs. Certainty and uncertainty always come hand in hand. Certainty feels like the root of the tree, the deeper it goes, the taller the tree will grow. In this context, certainty is used interchangeably with faith, with belief. The deeper the faith, the more room for exploration and experimentation in the ream of uncertainty.
The Inevitability of Complexity
We then expanded our horizon by talking about the inevitability of complexity and uncertainty. All linear systems are embedded within nonlinear systems; all technical systems are embedded within complex systems. While some scientists’ primary focus is on linear and technical systems, these systems are all embedded within larger nonlinear and complex systems.
The letter from Dr. Ernst Stuhlinger, then-associate director of science at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, answering a Zambia-based nun named Sister Mary Jucunda in 1970, makes the point.
The distribution of the food to the needy is a completely different problem. The question is not so much one of shipping volume, it is one of international cooperation. The ruler of a small nation may feel very uneasy about the prospect of having large quantities of food shipped into his country by a large nation, simply because he fears that along with the food there may also be an import of influence and foreign power. Efficient relief from hunger, I am afraid, will not come before the boundaries between nations have become less divisive than they are today. I do not believe that space flight will accomplish this miracle over night. However, the space program is certainly among the most promising and powerful agents working in this direction.
Space program, international cooperation and hunger? Yes, they are all related. The space program is complicated, but hunger is complex. Rocket science is complicated, but parenting is complex. They are different systems with different perspectives on uncertainty. So the point is: there is no getting away from uncertainty.
Feedback: Checking in on relationship with uncertainty
As is the tradition, we ended the Cafe with a check out question: “How has your relationship with uncertainty changed now that you know more about it?” Below are feedbacks from our participants, organized in two themes.
Appreciating uncertainty
Uncertainty can be scary but exciting!
Uncertainty is challenging but joyful.
Hearing that the engineering and science work I enjoyed in my prior career would fall into the “complicated” (predictable) realm, versus my last 8 years of primarily parenting falls into the (unpredictable) complex quadrant is very eye opening.
There is so much uncertainty when dealing with human systems. Complexity is what makes people so interesting.
Dancing with uncertainty
Uncertainty is perhaps the simplest example of something that becomes less certain, less nebulous, the more you know about it.
I don’t know if my relationship with uncertainty has changed. One needs to embrace it and get uncomfortable rather than ignore it.
I have been dealing with uncertainty in a very intense way for the past few years, and focusing on what you are most certain about resonated with me. I’m going to practice it more often, with intention.
Uncertainty is constant and keeps us from settling into fixed ideas or world views. Recognizing where we are uncertain is a driving force to learn and expand our current perspectives.
I would like to thank Lydia Chlpka and Jake Palumbo for their help with preparing for this blog post.
